Publications
Scenarios for Ukraine: A Theory of Victory and Peace
At first glance, Vladimir Putin has the time advantage in his war with Ukraine: faster production, deeper manpower sources and pockets, no need for consultation and agreement from allies, and no meddlesome domestic opposition. From this point of view, he would prefer to keep the conflict going.
Published 27 May 2025
Andrés Pastrana
Former President of Colombia
Greg Mills
Director, The Brenthurst Foundation
Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno
Former Ambassador of Colombia to the United States
Currently three scenarios are imaginable in the conflict: A Continuation of Fighting; Division of Ukraine either along the lines of the peace in Korea or the division of Germany; or an Israeli option, by which Ukraine uses a temporary peace to rebuild its defensive and offensive military capacity, making itself an ‘indigestible porcupine’
