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Commissioned Reports
It is the Foundation's intention that its research programme will serve
both to stimulate debate on African development and assist policy-makers in
finding solutions. To this end, the Foundation has commissioned a number of
reports. The following reports are available:
| 2008#BD06 : |
China and the US in Africa by the Executive Director of the
African Economic Research Consortium, Dr William Lyakurwa |
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In assessing Africa’s relationships with the US and
China, the paper pays particular attention to the energy sector, as it
represents a large chunk of both US and Chinese interests in the continent.
Trade, foreign policy and foreign aid are other issues that are reviewed.
Capsule descriptions of a selection of countries illustrate the motivations and
impact of Chinese activities. The paper closes with a detailed catalogue of
areas that African governments should consider as they assess their
relationships with these two world powers. |
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| 2008#BD05 : |
Public Works Programmes Post Conflict by Frank
Rusagara |
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General Rusagara’s paper concludes that:
Conflict to a great extent entails destruction of
socio-economic infrastructure, including the displacement of millions of
people. Therefore, most of the countries affected by conflict or in
post-conflict situations have comparatively low rates of economic growth, and
high poverty, unemployment and underemployment rates. If there is to be
recovery and stability as peace takes hold, there is an urgent need to raise
the socioeconomic capacities of conflict-affected populations. This paper
suggests public works programmes (PWPs) may not only offer sustainable
employment and strengthen the vocational skills of many workers, but also
encourage social cohesion between local residents and people displaced by
conflict.
For such programmes to be successful, however, the paper
argues that: the government must be involved and take ownership of PWPs in the
peace-building process in order to ensure their continuity. The national
government should actively promote these programmes, which should be located
within government planning cycles. Donors can only play a facilitative role,
the reason being the high cost of reconstruction, which governments in
post-conflict situations are often unable to bear. |
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| 2008#BD04 : |
Wings over Africa? Trends and Models for African Air
Travel |
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1.8Mb
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Air routes and traffic are essential components of
development, especially for land-locked nations. The factors that go into
devising an air-traffic growth strategy are not fundamentally about reforming
loss-making national airlines. Indeed, the national airline should be a
secondary consideration in this process. A number of much more important and
central factors have to be considered in developing a strategy: The first is
the overall economic environment that the air sector will service and into
which it will integrate. The second factor is that making countries a good
place for people and things to fly in and out of is far more important than
having a healthy national airline or airport. In this there are many things
than can be done more easily than others, which demands setting priorities.
This includes everything from developing adventure tourism experiences to
easing the visa restrictions on visitors and opening the skies to competition.
Indeed, the critical first consideration in reforming (and growing) air traffic
is liberalisation: nothing much can be achieved without opening the skies, and
not just rhetorically. |
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| 2008#BD03 : |
Tswalu Dialogue: Towards Conflict Resolution Best
Practice |
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240Kb
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The Tswalu Dialogue was established in 2002 as a premier
African forum to discuss issues of concern to continental development and
security. It is hosted Jonathan and Jennifer Oppenheimer and was, in 2008,
organised by The Brenthurst Foundation in conjunction with the Commission of
the African Union (AU), Royal United Services Institute for Defence and
Security Studies (RUSI), African Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), S
Rajaratnam School for International Studies (RSIS), Dayan Centre for Middle
Eastern and African Studies at the University of Tel Aviv, Konrad Adenauer
Stiftung, Institute for Security Studies (ISS), and Business Leadership South
Africa. It is supported by the Government of Denmark. The 2008 Dialogue
examined a range of topical and relevant international case-studies in aiming
to develop current best practice towards conflict resolution and
management. |
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| 2008#BD02 : |
Capitalising on Natural Potential |
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121Kb
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Tourism in Costa Rica and Colombia: Lessons for
Africa
Examining two key Latin American tourism stories – Costa
Rica and Colombia -- and in particular the applicability of their coffee-trail
tourism experience. The paper finds:
- Firstly, safety and security … is a crucial
prerequisite for any form of tourism, but especially for foreign and upper-end
visitors.
- Secondly, a cohesive national strategy is required.
- Thirdly, education and language competence help ensure
better services and open the tourism sector to a broader range of people.
- Fourthly, a country should build a national brand and
healthy image of the country abroad.
- Fifthly, foreign tourists appreciate and often demand
good service and a friendly reception.
- Finally, visa requirements, legislation and investment
policy should make it easy to visit and invest in a country.
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| 2008#BD01 : |
Zimbabwe after the election |
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181Kb
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A Path to Economic Stabilisation, Recovery and
Growth
Presuming the installation of a legitimate government, critical
post-election steps on Zimbabwe’s path to stabilisation and recovery
include the need for forward-looking, investor-friendly policies on:
- land settlement;
- economic management and transformation; and
- human security and rights.
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| 2007#OP4 : |
Mozambique: the business view |
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700Kb
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This report
– the results of a survey conducted on behalf of the Brenthurst Foundation
and Business Leadership South Africa. It is one of a series of reports on the
investment and business climate in southern African countries, based on input
from the private sector. |
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| 2007#10 : |
Malaysia and Affirmative Action |
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It is the
Malaysian example of affirmative action or “positive discrimination”
which is most often referred to because of its generally accepted image of
success. However, closer examination reveals that success does not occur by
chance and a national or central programme, with clear measurable objectives is
a critical requirement; as opposed to vague, undefined aims like
‘transformation of the economy’. Additionally, certain factors like
the established tin mining industry and the rubber plantations, along with the
discovery of oil, coinciding with the 1973 ‘oil crisis’, made a major
contribution to providing momentum to Malaysia’s New Economic Policy
(NEP). With these factors providing a stable investment climate, the national
programmes to develop the productivity of the agricultural sector, complemented
by directed education and a professional work ethic were launched with the
primary aim of realising a nominal increase in general personal income –
which served to satisfy all sectors of the population. There must be an
acceptance that racial friction will not disappear overnight and that
satisfaction of the majority’s aspirations must enjoy priority in spite of
the inflammatory potential this has on racial discord. A wealthy elite,
benefiting from patronage and exploitation of the policies, will emerge and a
decisive requirement exists for a clear time limit on the programmes, to
mitigate against the inherent discriminatory nature and divisive
influence. |
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| 2007#09 : |
Air Hubs: A Checklist for Africa |
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136Kb
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Lessons from
other countries show that the creation of an air hub is fundamentally dependent
on an ‘open skies’ policy. Attracting other airlines to use the hub
helps to establish a suite of regional and international connections. Such
liberalisation should not be tied to reciprocity. Success is also linked to
location, to being first among regional peers to create a hub, and to having
both domestic exports and a tourism market. A hub goes hand in hand with the
development of local business. Airport income from shops and restaurants is an
important earner and helps to keep landing fees low, thereby attracting
additional aircraft. The absence of liberalisation is cited as an ongoing
impediment to the creation of such a hub in South Africa, where Cape Town (for
reasons of altitude) is seen as a natural hub for ongoing connections to Latin
America and Johannesburg for Southern Africa. |
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| 2007#08 : |
Lessons from the Colombian floriculture industry for
Africa |
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578Kb
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Colombia is the
second largest exporter of fresh cut flowers in the world and the largest
flower exporter to the United States. It has the world’s richest variety
of flowers and producers 50 different kinds for international commercial
consumption, which generates nearly $1 billion in foreign exchange, provides
over 200,000 jobs and is the largest employer of woman in rural Colombia. All
this has been achieved in just 40 years. … The case of floriculture in
Colombia and the neat combination of features that have contributed to its
export success is instructive to both African policy planners in government and
practitioners alike. African countries looking to replicate the success in
Colombia face some serious challenges, but are generally in a good position to
prosper. The challenges they face are mostly associated with investment and
product recognition. Large initial investments need to be made. This, as in the
case of Colombia, has to come from the outside – most likely from an
existing multinational corporation already engaged in the international
floriculture business. But this investment will have to be met with appropriate
policies and incentives that will ensure certain benefits and perhaps also
protect the pioneer in terms of guaranteed appropriation following the initial
capital and technological outlay. |
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| 2007#07 : |
HE Paul Kagame Making Aid Work Better |
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79Kb
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Rwanda’s
President Paul Kagame answers questions based on his presentation earlier this
month in the UK on the topic.
In answering the question ‘how can
we increase investment to Africa’, HE President Kagame argues for four
actions:
| » |
First, establishing and maintaining security, peace and
stability nationally and regionally. Investment and development are impossible
in the absence of these fundamentals. |
| » |
Second, confronting the key constraints facing our
economies in both national and regional contexts. In Rwanda, the priorities
include reducing the high costs of electricity and transport. Many countries on
the continent face similar challenges, but these are by no means universal to
every African economy, which is why there will never be a successful
‘one-size-fits-all’ solution to our continent’s socio-economic
transformation or that of the developing world in general. |
| » |
Third, removing the barriers that governments put in
the path of entrepreneurs. This requires changing the mindset of governmental
bureaucracies that hinder the creation of prosperity. That is not to say that
the state should ‘wither away’ so to speak - far from it - but
governments should see their roles as enablers of business, and not gatekeepers
for controlling and hampering it. |
| » |
Fourth, learning to create and communicate a vision. A
vision for a country’s future does not come from one person. A vision is
nurtured over time in a consultative fashion so that all citizens can
contribute to its creation and ownership. |
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| 2007#06 : |
Business Principles for a strong Africa |
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85Kb
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The post-colonial
period in Africa is over. More and more democratic and peaceful, Africa today
battles not against colonialism or neo-colonialism, but against exclusion from
the global economy, disease and poverty. In contrast to the apocalyptic
humanitarianism of most media, Africa is increasingly optimistic about its own
future and increasingly serious about business. Fewer and fewer African
citizenries are willing to tolerate prolonged deviations from new norms of
political freedom and public accountability. More and more African governments
understand and embrace their role in reducing the barriers to commerce and
investment. They understand that the only sure pathway to prosperity and true
political and fiscal independence is a vibrant, tax-paying private sector.
The full benefits of reform have yet to be reaped, in some countries
the transition has yet to begin and in many there is still too much belief in
bureaucratic and statist modes of governance. But the possibility of a general
return to the authoritarian politics and purely statist economics of the first
thirty years of independence is increasingly remote. |
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| 2007#05 : |
Africa Beyond Aid II |
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158Kb
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In his
introduction, Greg Mills set the scene for the second round of ‘Africa
beyond Aid’ conference process by describing the two main visions or
paradigms of global development current today.
One is led by
politicians and celebrities, including some academics. It argues that poor
countries are poor because their people are sick and uneducated. It insists
that the West has a moral duty to heal and school poor Africans, Asians and
Latin Americans by spending billions more dollars on aid programmes. Its
adherents claim that inputs of smart Westerners armed with lots of Western
money can solve the problems of poor countries and ‘make poverty
history’. Although this model has done a tremendous amount of harm,
proponents of this view claim now that ‘tweaks’ in the system can
remedy these failings, not least by creating better incentives for performance.
The other vision is led by no one in particular, but it is embraced by
successful economies in both the developed and developing worlds. It argues
that people in poor countries are sick and uneducated because they are poor. It
insists that countries never reduce poverty because of aid, but only when they
make their countries more attractive and fair places for everyone to do
business. The answer, in terms of this model, is not a set of targets for
increased expenditure or benchmarks for education and health, but rather
another set of indicators related to the costs and complexities of doing
business. This demands in part redefining what ‘development’ is:
broad-based growth in entrepreneurial activity and real incomes for poor
people, and not gains in health and education levels per se. |
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| 2007#04 : |
AFRICOM and African Security |
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155Kb
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AFRICOM will be
most effective where there is a commonality of purpose and a coincidence of
interests between the United States and African states. Establishing that sense
of shared purpose and mutual interest requires constant high-level dialogue,
joint analysis efforts, and frequent recalibration of priorities and programs.
In particular it requires frank exchanges about the each side’s core
security interests. AFRICOM will not be effective if Africans feel that the
‘true’ U.S. interests have not been disclosed. Nor will it succeed if
U.S. attempts to market AFRICOM as a development or security tool result in
unfounded expectations. AFRICOM will provide no quick fixes.
U.S.
engagement in Africa is adjusting to new security and economic environments.
AFRICOM is thus a work in progress, where greater joint African and U.S.
engagement could decisively shape the continent’s future – for better
or for worse, depending on how the relationships are managed.
If
AFRICOM turns out to be a ‘minimalist’ institution – with modest
outcomes limited to DoD bureaucratic reshuffling and incremental enhancements
to current U.S. military initiatives in Africa, cloaked under the rhetoric of a
comprehensive and ‘joined-up’ approach, then it will be a lost
opportunity. AFRICOM can only serve the interests of both partners if it is a
‘maximalist’ and genuinely transformational institution that provides
what Africa needs most: help in building security institutions that support
democratic statehood. |
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| 2007#03 : |
Why Some Latin American Economies Grow and Some
Don’t |
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132Kb
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Latin
America’s high growth economies ‘share some common characteristics.
These include a basic set of fundamentals that forms the foundation for
feasible growth and development. The implementation and timing of these
policies and initiatives result in an arguably more heterodox than orthodox
approach to economic development. Given the general shortage of savings,
investment – and particularly foreign direct investment (FDI) – is
key to growth and development. And, in a world where politics and policy count,
the growth performers have had leaders that display a visionary approach to
economic management and strategy mixed with strong virtues of accountability
and responsibility. Political stability (or perceived stability) is an
essential prerequisite for FDI and sustainable growth. |
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| 2007#02 : |
China, United States and Africa – An African
View |
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83Kb
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CHINA’S
rising profile in Africa is perhaps the most significant development for the
continent since the end of the Cold War. It has sparked new interest in
Africa’s economic potential. It has helped to elevate interest about
Africa in global affairs, a profile already raised by the continent’s
current economic growth spurt and homespun efforts to deal with conflict and
institutionalise governance regimes. Finally, China’s involvement has
ended European and American complacency that Africa would always belong to
their sphere of influence. |
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| 2007#01 : |
Why do Investors Invest? The Rationale of South African Firms
in Latin America |
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110Kb
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Politics and
policy are increasingly becoming key determinants of foreign direct investment
(FDI) in the developing world. Nowhere is this more so than in the extraction
industry, where technological advancements have enabled multinational
corporations to pursue natural resource deposits in the most difficult
geographical locations and transport the extracted resources anywhere in the
world. Political stability, and favourable economic policies and legislation
— not to mention solid institutions — distinguish one resource-rich
developing country from another, and will ultimately determine which countries
attract FDI and which fail to do so. |
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| 2006#10 : |
Case Studies on the Impact of South African Mining Investment
in Africa |
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132Kb
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Mining has always
been an important economic activity in Africa, but especially since colonial
times, large volumes of minerals have been mined and processed for
international markets. From the first diamond rush in South Africa in the early
1870s, Africa’s mineral economy has grown significantly, and the continent
has become a strategic producer of precious raw materials. Today, mining makes
the largest contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) of many African
states. |
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| 2006#09 : |
Globalisation and Economic Success: Policy Options for
Africa |
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125Kb
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This project
focuses on the nexus between politics and economics in identifying and
codifying lessons from high-growth economies appropriate in the African context
and consistent with the plans of the New Partnership for Africa’s
Development (NEPAD). The programme aims to pinpoint the relevant macro- and
microeconomic steps necessary for higher rates of economic growth in countries
that have undergone significant political change and have dealt with acute
sociopolitical challenges. These countries have been selected on the basis of
their relevance for Africa and further afield. This programme is thus both
policy- and businessrelevant, and its findings will feed into wider national
and continental debates. Participants have been selected from academic,
business and government communities located all across the world. |
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| 2006#08 : |
Fitting China In Africa |
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62Kb
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‘China’s irruption onto the African scene has been
the most dramatic and important factor in the external relations of the
continent – perhaps in the development of Africa as a whole – since
the end of the Cold War’. However, ‘China is likely to adapt to and
modify the African experience, but is extremely unlikely fundamentally to
change it.’ In this, he notes, ‘In the longer term, no external power
with long-term economic interests in Africa, especially in vulnerable
enterprises such as mineral extraction, can escape the issue of
‘governance’, because this is the essential precondition for
maintaining stable economic relationships’. In fact, ‘In cutting
itself off from changes in African governance over the past two decades, China
runs the risk of presenting itself merely as an interloper bent on short-term
economic gain.’
‘There are likewise’, Clapham observes,
‘constraints on China’s capacity to develop long-term relationships
in Africa, that derive from the problems of inserting itself into a set of
structures that are already deeply established, and which extend well beyond
the limited range of Chinese interests and involvement.’ He argues that
‘In striking contrast to the role that the PRC at least aspired to play
during the Maoist era, there is absolutely no ‘project of
transformation’ for Africa involved in China’s extremely successful
project of transforming its own economy, by inserting it into a particular
niche in the global division of labour. The rhetoric of solidarity apart,
Africa today is in no way what China was in 1949, nor is there any remotely
plausible agenda for Africa in the future to become what China in now.’
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| 2006#07 : |
A Three-Country Study of African
Agriculture |
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129Kb
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This
three-country study of agriculture in Africa examines two main elements of
agriculture in Africa: First, the potential for agro-industrial development;
and second, the obstacles to an export-led agro-industry in Africa. Looking
specifically at the findings of research in the three countries, Tanzania,
Malawi and Zambia, the study highlights the huge potential for agriculture in
Africa but equally highlights what is hindering the realisation of that
potential.
This is not only about crop yields, production techniques
and trade preferences but also about the macroeconomic environment, government
interference in pricing, the effect of aid on agriculture and other problem
areas that affect the overall picture. Several case studies of success stories
are included. |
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| 2006#06 : |
Africa-China-US Dialogue |
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192Kb
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This Brenthurst
Discussion Paper comprises a report from the first Africa-China-US Trilateral
Dialogue held at Tswalu Kalahari Reserve on 4-6 August 2006. |
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| 2006#05 : |
The Construction Industry and long-term Economic Growth in
South Africa |
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93Kb
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This Paper by Pierre Blauuw, Chief Economist at the SA
Federation of Civil Engineering Contractors (SAFCEC), examines the role of the
construction sector in the South African economy, and concludes:
The construction sector literally lays the foundations for
economic growth through the provision of economic and social infrastructure.
Although the effects of the sector contributions to economic growth and
employment creation are normally captured through direct, indirect and induced
multipliers, there is also a longer term ‘supply-side effect’ that
must be taken into consideration. Currently the South African construction
sector employs an estimated 450,000 to 600,000 people, and total activity is in
the region of 5% of gross domestic product (GDP).
This ‘supply-side effect’ relates to the long-term
effects of fixed investment. The real contribution of the sector to gross
domestic product growth is captured in the provision of infrastructure to
unlock bottlenecks and ensure that sectors in the economy can operate
competitively in the global economy, as well as attract and stimulate new
investment.
Given the renewed focus on infrastructure as a result of
growing awareness of backlogs and bottlenecks, it would seem that the country
is moving in the right direction. The impact of the investment will yield
direct positive returns and increase growth for many years to come. |
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| 2006#04 : |
The 2,000-Day Challenge: Planning an end to aid in
Africa |
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65Kb
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The use of aid as a development tool is a contentious issue.
After nearly 50 years of independence and development efforts backed by more
than half a trillion dollars of Western aid, most of Africa’s citizens are
poorer than ever. A radical review of donor aid policy is surely long
overdue.
The discussion falls between the moralists, who argue that
the world is obliged to provide aid to Africa and other developing nations, and
the sceptics, who dispute the feasibility of aid as a development tool. Yet
there is a middle path between the two extremes that suggests we should employ
aid specifically for humanitarian purposes; and also with a clear and targeted
strategy and for a limited period for Africa’s development.
This middle path would lead to Africa and its donors
committing themselves to phasing out Western aid over the next five years, with
the aim of replacing foreign lending by African resources, drawing on a
combination of:
- higher domestic savings;
- greater use of land ownership and houses as collateral;
- implementing incentives to secure a higher share of FDI;
- taking advantage of international trade reforms;
- implementing measures to encourage the private sector
and reverse capital flight, including an amnesty for those who have broken the
law by illegally sending money abroad; and
- tougher action by banks to stem illegal transfers.
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| 2006#02 : |
African Scenarios for 2020 |
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124Kb
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This paper
identifies three scenarios for Africa in 2020: Where Africa takes charge, where
it follows, and a ‘patchwork quilt’ where some countries lead and
others fall behind. But there will not be one scenario for Africa in 2020.
Instead, the continent’s countries will be an increasingly confused set of
extremes. Rather than provide simple ‘low’, ‘medium’ and
‘high’ road outcomes, the analysis focuses first on
‘drivers’: those forces that will propel change across Africa.
Another possible determinant of which scenario is taken up is continental
leadership. African governments need a continual stream of new ideas and
dynamism if they are to drive the reform agenda. Twenty years of experience
suggests that government alone cannot provide all of these ideas, much less the
energy to drive them. |
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| 2006#01 : |
Implications of China's Economic Takeoff for
Africa |
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138Kb
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This study
considers the impact of China on African producers, and assesses what African
policy-makers can do to both try to take advantage of the Chinese growth
phenomenon and avoid the costs to domestic industry. |
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