STATEMENT: New Election Survey Shows DA, MK Party Surge as ANC and EFF Tumble

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National Election

• Voters appear to have left the ANC, EFF and IFP for Zuma’s party in significant numbers. The MK Party is set to overtake the EFF (10%) with 13% of the vote.
• The DA has grown its share of the vote to 27% (from 23% in October 2023).
• The IFP’s support has fallen to 2% (from 7% in October 2023).

• The Multiparty Charter (MPC) coalition (DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+, ACDP among others) has 33% of the vote (down from 36% in October 2023) .
• South Africa will almost certainly have a coalition government after this election as the ANC has slid further to 39% of the vote.

Key Provinces

1. GAUTENG: The DA has 32% of the vote (up from 24% in October 2023) and the ANC has 34% (down from 37% in October 2023). The MPC coaltiion (DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+, ACDP among others) has 38% of the vote. A coalition government will run this province.

2. KWAZULU NATAL: Zuma’s MK Party is set to be the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal with 25% of the vote with the ANC (20%), DA (19%) and the IFP (19%) running neck-and-neck.

The aggregated vote for the MPC is 39%. A coalition government will run this province.

3. THE WESTERN CAPE: The DA looks set to continue to runt the Western Cape, with a majority of 53% (down from 56% in October 2023) while the ANC has risen sharply to 35% from 22% in October 2023.

Issues

• 80% of voters said the country was going in the wrong direction with just 17% saying it was going in the right direction.
• Voters said the biggest facing South Africa were unemployment (28%), corruption (27%), load shedding (17%) and weak leadership (12%).
• Weak leadership (12%) overtook crime (11%) as the fourth most pressing issue.
• Over half (53%) said “The ANC government of the last three decades” was to blame, followed by 11% who said apartheid was to blame.

Foreign Policy

• Some 43% of voters believe that South Africa should align itself with the West and other democratic nations, with 22% saying it should align itself with Africa and only 19% saying it should align itself with BRICS, suggesting that the ANC’s decision to move into the BRICS camp may be costing it votes.

• More than 50% of voters said the ANC’s policy on the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conflicts would not affect the way they voted.
• 24% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC as a result of its policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• 23% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC over its stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict.
• 23% of voters said they were “less likely” to vote for the ANC over its stance on Zimbabwe.

Domestic Policy

• 39% of voters said the best way to put more money in people’s pockets was by “making it easier to start small businesses”. A further 25% said “reducing taxes” while 20% said “increasing social grants” and 10% said “decreasing the cost of the civil service.
• 42% said social grant payments should be increased. Asked how this should be funded, 51% said by “spending less on civil servants” and 22% said by increasing taxes.
• Asked how government could decrease the cost of the civil service, 45% said by reducing the size of the civil service by 10% or more. A further 35% said by “cutting civil service salaries and perks”.

Governance

• 32% of voters said the Western Cape was South Africa’s best governed province with Gauteng a distant second at 18%.
• 33% said Cape Town was the country’s best governed city. Johannesburg was second with just 12%.
• An equal number of voters (33%) believe the DA and the ANC are the parties most effective at governing with the EFF a distant third with 9%.

Favourability

Voters were asked who they rated favourably and who they rated unfavourably. The net overall favourability score was obtained by subtracting unfavourability from favourability.

• The DA enjoyed the highest overall favourability ranking for political parties (4%) with the ANC second (-4%). Least favourable was the FF+ (-31%), with the IFP and the EFF scoring -30%.
• Cyril Ramaphosa (6%) and John Steenhuisen (-6%) had the best overall favourability rating followed by the IFP’s Velenkosi Hlabisa (-12%) with Jacob Zuma with the worst ranking at -31% and Julius Malema close behind with -29%.

Coalitions

76% of voters said they would be happy for a coalition to govern South Africa, up from 74% in October 2023. 61% said they believed a coalition of many different parties could “effectively govern” South Africa.

Asked about which coalitions they favoured, 29% said the Multiparty Charter coalition (DA, IFP, Action SA, FF+, ACDP and others), 25% said an ANC-DA coalition and 24% said an ANC-EFF coalition.

26% of South Africans said they were more likely to vote for an opposition party following the launch of the MPC.

Comment by The Brenthurst Foundation Director, Dr Greg Mills:

"South Africa's political environment has been substantially shaken up and the old assumptions are no longer true. There is a viable and competitive opposition emerging. We are heading for a transition away from one-party dominance, which can only be good for democracy, policy competitiveness, delivery and accountability."

For media enquiries, contact:

media@thebrenthurstfoundation.org

*READ OUR RELATED OP-ED HERE*

*READ FULL SURVEY RESULTS HERE*

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