In less than three months’ time, the mandate of the transitional federal government will expire. Key components of the political roadmap for Somalia have yet to be delivered, not least a new constitution, but there are grounds for optimism. The extremist group Al-Shabaab has declined in strength, local governance is gradually expanding and last year’s famine is technically over. The various accords brokered in 2011/12 also suggest that the international commitment to bringing Somalia’s endless transition to a close and helping to liberate its people from the constant menace of violence and chaos has never been stronger. Will 2012 mark a new beginning in the country’s future or simply another false dawn?

‘Somalia 2012: Ending the Transition?’, written and compiled by Knox Chitiyo and Anna Rader, with contributions from Ken Menkhaus, Mohamed Omaar, Fred Mugisha and Bahsan Ahmed Said, draws in part on the findings of a one-day roundtable discussion convened by RUSI and The Brenthurst Foundation in November 2011. The Roundtable focused on four core themes: recovery and rehabilitation; the political roadmap; security; and the role of the diaspora and external actors. This Paper also includes up-to-date analysis of the current situation.

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